India Retail Market Outlook to 2028

India Retail Market Overview

• The India retail market is valued at USD 1.4 trillion based on a five-year historical analysis, driven by rapid urbanization, increased disposable income, and the growing trend of e-commerce. The market's expansion has been strongly supported by the rise in internet penetration and the increasing adoption of digital payment systems. Consumers are shifting towards organized retail formats, which offer more convenience and diverse product offerings. This growth is further propelled by the entry of international retailers and the rise of homegrown brands capitalizing on the vast consumer base.

• The Indian retail market is dominated by metropolitan cities such as Mumbai, Delhi, and Bengaluru due to their high population density, modern infrastructure, and affluent consumer bases. These cities boast advanced retail ecosystems, including malls, luxury outlets, and high street stores, which are supported by strong purchasing power and a tech-savvy population. Additionally, these cities are hubs for both organized and e-commerce retail, driven by the presence of global brands and large domestic players that use these cities as launch pads for expansion into the broader market.
• The implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) has simplified Indias tax structure, benefiting the retail sector by reducing the overall tax burden. According to the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC), GST collections from the retail sector contributed over INR 1.5 trillion in 2024, reflecting strong consumer spending. GST has also streamlined the movement of goods across states, reducing logistical challenges and improving supply chain efficiency.

India Retail Market Segmentation

By Retail Format: The market is segmented by retail format into organized retail, unorganized retail, online retail, and hybrid retail (omni-channel). Organized retail has gained significant traction due to consumer preferences for structured shopping environments, quality assurance, and diverse product availability. The dominance of organized retail is primarily driven by mall culture in urban areas and the increased presence of global brands. This segment is supported by higher disposable income, evolving consumer behavior, and the demand for a better shopping experience.

By Product Category: The market is also segmented by product category into food & grocery, apparel & footwear, consumer electronics, home & furniture, and beauty & personal care. Among these, the food & grocery segment leads the market due to the daily necessity of such products and the rapid expansion of hypermarkets and supermarkets. The strong distribution network for groceries, coupled with the penetration of e-commerce platforms like BigBasket and Grofers, has fueled this segments growth.

India Retail Market Competitive Landscape

The India retail market is dominated by a few key players that exert significant influence on the market dynamics. Large conglomerates such as Reliance Retail, Aditya Birla Retail, and Tata Trent lead the organized retail space, while e-commerce giants like Amazon India and Flipkart dominate the online retail market. This consolidation of power in the hands of a few players highlights the substantial investments these companies have made in infrastructure, supply chain management, and technology, enabling them to cater to India's large and diverse consumer base.

India Retail Industry Analysis

Growth Drivers

• Increase in Disposable Income: India has experienced a steady rise in per capita income, which has contributed to increased purchasing power. According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the countrys per capita income rose to INR 1,72,000 (USD 2,120) in 2024 from INR 1,58,000 (USD 1,940) in 2022. This growth in income is directly linked to an expanding middle class that spends more on retail products, from groceries to luxury goods, fueling the growth of the retail sector. The disposable income increase supports consumer spending on lifestyle products, electronics, and apparel, key categories in India's retail market.
• Rising Internet Penetration and E-commerce: India's e-commerce sector has grown significantly due to increased internet penetration, with over 700 million internet users in 2024, according to the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI). More than 65% of these users now shop online, driven by the convenience of e-commerce platforms and availability of diverse products. E-commerce giants like Flipkart and Amazon have expanded their operations into smaller cities, ensuring broader market access. This trend has enabled growth in online retail sales, which accounted for approximately 12% of the total retail market in 2024.
• Urbanization and Shift Toward Modern Retail Formats: As of 2024, India's urban population stands at 493 million, with continued urbanization fueling the growth of organized retail. The Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs indicates that urbanization has brought more people into proximity with modern retail formats like shopping malls and hypermarkets, encouraging greater consumer spending. Cities like Mumbai, Delhi, and Bengaluru have witnessed substantial retail infrastructure development, offering consumers a broader range of shopping experiences in high-end malls and retail centers, contributing to the overall growth of the retail sector.

Market Challenges

• High Real Estate Costs in Urban Centers: Retailers in urban India face rising real estate costs, particularly in cities like Mumbai, where retail space can cost upwards of INR 25,000 per square foot. This high cost is a barrier to the expansion of brick-and-mortar stores, especially for smaller retailers and new entrants. The Department of Economic Affairs reports that these inflated prices affect profitability and make it difficult for retailers to secure prime locations, particularly in highly competitive markets such as Delhi and Bengaluru.
• Complex Regulatory Environment: India's regulatory framework for retail, particularly foreign direct investment (FDI), presents hurdles for businesses. As of 2024, multi-brand retail FDI is capped at 51%, and international retailers must comply with local sourcing norms that require 30% of goods to be sourced from domestic suppliers. According to the Ministry of Commerce, these regulations complicate entry for foreign players, deterring investment and creating barriers for global retail chains seeking to expand in Indias diverse market.

India Retail Market Future Outlook

Over the next five years, the India retail market is poised for significant growth driven by multiple factors, including increasing digitization, favorable government policies like the introduction of GST, and the continuous growth of e-commerce platforms. Retailers are expected to further integrate omni-channel strategies to cater to both online and offline consumers, with an emphasis on customer experience and personalization. Additionally, rural penetration and the expansion of organized retail formats into Tier-II and Tier-III cities will open new avenues for growth.

Future Market Opportunities

• Private Labels and Cost Efficiency: The rise of private labels in retail chains offers an opportunity for retailers to enhance profit margins. Private labels, which accounted for 10% of retail sales in 2024 according to the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), allow retailers to offer high-margin products at competitive prices. Retailers such as Big Bazaar and DMart have capitalized on this trend, driving up consumer preference for store brands, especially in categories like groceries and home essentials.
• Franchising and Collaborative Retail Models: Franchising is emerging as a viable model for expanding retail operations, especially in smaller towns and rural areas. The Franchise India Report notes that India had over 200,000 retail franchises by 2024, supported by the low cost of entry and collaborative retail models. This allows brands to scale quickly while minimizing operational risks, offering a strategic pathway for both domestic and international retailers to expand their market presence.